Multidimensional Assessment of Financing Risks for Metro Projects under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

Abstract

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, plays a pivotal role in strengthening economic cooperation between China and Pakistan and enhancing regional connectivity. Within this framework, metro construction projects have emerged as critical components of urban infrastructure development. However, the financing of such large-scale projects involves complex risk structures that require systematic evaluation. This study conducts a multidimensional assessment of financing risks associated with metro projects under CPEC by integrating both quantitative and qualitative approaches. It examines key categories of risk, including political and policy risks as well as economic and market risks, and evaluates their impact on project feasibility and sustainability. The findings reveal that factors such as political stability, policy continuity, macroeconomic fluctuations, and market uncertainty significantly influence financing outcomes. While quantitative analysis indicates that certain risk indicators exceed controllable thresholds, qualitative evaluation provides deeper insights into the underlying causes and transmission mechanisms of these risks. Based on these findings, the study proposes targeted mitigation strategies, including enhancing bilateral policy coordination, optimizing financing structures, and strengthening risk management systems. This research offers both theoretical and practical contributions to the management of financing risks in cross-border infrastructure projects and provides valuable references for similar initiatives.