An AHP-SWOT Analysis of Gwadar Port’s Strategic Growth Potential Under the BRI and CPEC Frameworks

Abstract

Gwadar Port, a key node of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative, plays a critical role in regional economic cooperation and the global logistics network. This study develops an evaluation system with 16 indicators based on the SWOT framework, analyzing the port’s development environment across four dimensions: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to determine indicator weights, with all consistency ratios (CR < 0.10) confirming result reliability. The entropy method is also used for comparison to improve objectivity and robustness.Results show that Gwadar Port’s development environment is dominated by weaknesses and threats, with combined weights of 0.3716 and 0.3715, respectively, far exceeding strengths (0.1630) and opportunities (0.0942). The top constraints are security risks inBalochistan (0.1905), regional geopolitical tensions (0.1856), and port competition pressure (0.1071). SWOT coordinate analysis (X = -0.2086, Y = -0.2773) places the port in the WT strategic zone.Accordingly, the study proposes a multi-layered strategy centered on WT defensive measures, supported by WO and ST strategies, with SO strategies as long-term goals. These findings provide practical guidance for Gwadar Port’s stable development and offer strategic insights for other Belt and Road ports.