Recalibrating the Politics of Trade War: Sino-US Chronological Trade Competition and its Possible Impacts

Abstract

This article delves into the trade tensions between the United States and China, tracing their historical roots and competitive dynamics. Experts in both political and economic circles contend that the U.S. can be held responsible for four pivotal factors that have ignited one of the most significant trade disputes in history. Firstly, it aimed to narrow the trade deficit gap and stimulate employment. Secondly, it sought to prevent Chinese companies from gaining access to American technology and obstruct the digital modernization of China's industries. Thirdly, it aimed to mitigate the federal budget deficit. It's essential to recognize that trade conflicts seldom produce clear winners, as empirical evidence has shown. The U.S.-China trade war occurred against the backdrop of a global economic slowdown, which significantly influenced its trajectory. In this article, we also explore potential outcomes resulting from this trade conflict based on scenario modeling. The authors propose four conceivable scenarios by making assumptions about the changing economic dynamics between the two nations. The article highlights the unmistakable political dimension of the U.S.'s protectionist stance to curtail China's expansion, both militarily and economically, through trade restrictions